World Cupdate: We Are Living in the Darkest Timeline

On the final match day of Group D there was, for all intents and purposes, one thing to play for. The odds of Nigeria making up a five-goal difference on Croatia were borderline non-existent which meant all eyes were on the second place in the knockout rounds, with all of Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina alive. Of the three, there were two clearly superior outcomes. Teams from the smaller confederations are always loved by non-partisans, and Nigeria further won over hearts with their truly spectacular kits and a great performance in downing Iceland 2-0. The Europeans, for their part, are the smallest side to ever qualify for the World Cup, have that Viking clap which is cool, and are still riding a wave of good will from their quarterfinal run at Euro 2016. Either side moving on to knockouts would provide a side neutrals could rally around. Argentina moving on would mean another world power escaping from their own poor play despite themselves, and prolongs the Sisyphean hell that is Lionel Messi’s international career, repeatedly dragging his teammates to the brink of success only to be undone by their inability to perform anywhere as well as they do for their clubs.

Was there ever any doubt how this was going to go?

FiveThirtyEight had Nigeria as high as 85% favorites to move on when the score was knotted and the matches entered the final ten minutes. Iceland were still in with a shout themselves, should both they and Argentina find the back of the net. Argentina did. So did Croatia. And just like that, it turned out we were in the Bad Place all along.

The goals for Argentina were worth of a spot on in the next round, to be sure. Marcus Rojo’s unexpected winner was excellent, and the two touches Messi took on a full sprint to score the opener belong in a museum. Just look at this:

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Much like Ronaldo’s free kick, this is a moment of brilliance where even the strongest haters have to at least doff their hat a little. That doesn’t change that Argentina remain doomed in the eyes of all but the most deluded Argentinians and that everyone would have been better off had Rojo’s shot blazed over the bar and sent the Africans on to face France.

I’ve not mentioned Group C yet and already just on this sentence have given them more time than they deserve. Peru got a win, which was nice. France and Denmark played exactly the kind of game you expect from two sides who would both be pretty happy with the draw and ended the tournament's run of no scoreless games. While I get some conservatism from Denmark early, their lack of any endeavor as Australia fell behind by two goals, meaning a three-goal turn around in some fifteen minutes would have been needed to endanger the Danes, was infuriating. The only thing more so was the commentators continuing to concede it was the “smart” strategy while criticizing the game’s boringness. Screw going for the group when there is more-or-less nothing to lose. What’s the point, ya know?

Balls to you, Denmark. Balls.