Thursday, June 14, 2018

A Possibly Accurate, Not Fact-Checked Guide to the World Cup: Knockout Rounds

Every prediction contained in this preview is care of yours truly, somebody with an obsessive OCD-approach to World Cup qualifying who only watched non-US matches as five-minute highlights on double speed, muted, while listening to podcasts. They're probably still pretty good though, because I'm super smart and stuff.

With the Groups out of the way (Previews here: A; B; C; D; E; F; G; H) it's time to move on to the real fun, the knockout rounds, where the true misery artists can step up and show off their craft.

A reminder of the bracket, by way of my bang on group predictions (Click to enlarge):



Round of 16 - Uruguay vs. Morocco: Beneficiaries of some Group B bed-shitting, Uruguay get a relatively easy ask in the Round of 16, and dominate the first half, but lead by only 1-0 at the break because Cavani is gonna Cavani. Ultimately the talent edge is just too great, however, and Uruguay advance as comprehensive winners, 3-0.

Round of 16 - France vs. Iceland: France score early on to put the hopes of all Cinderella watchers to the sword, but Iceland have been here before, facing a similar hurdle in the Round of 16 at Euro 2016. Once again, miracles do come true as a free kick goal draws them level while a lightning counterattack puts the smallest nation ever to qualify into the quarterfinals.

Round of 16 - Brazil vs. Sweden: In a battle to be the one true Yellow-and-Blue side, there is little to no comparison on the pitch. The Swedes keep it competitive for a half hour, and create a few chances of their own, but only manage a conciliatory strike as Brazil takes it 3-1.

Round of 16 - Belgium vs. Senegal: Talks of this being the last chance for Belgium's "golden generation" seem a bit silly, given there's another Euro in two years and their core is far from ancient. They better hope I'm right, because much like against Wales two years ago, Belgium choke super hard in a winnable match and crash out as 2-1 losers.

Round of 16 - Spain vs. Russia: The recent brilliant decision to fire their coach just two days before their first match was a bold move by Spain, and one I really wish had happened before I had already predicted they would top their group with ease. It would be easy to retcon this by having Russia win here, but honestly, even a totally-in-disarray Spain still winning Group B and this match seems more likely than Russia's bum-ass team making the quarterfinals. Spain wins, call it 2-0.

Round of 16 - Argentina vs. Denmark: Two teams who are heavily reliant on their stars to save their asses when nothing else is going right. One of those stars is the excellent Christian Eriksen. The other is Lionel Fucking Messi. Messi delivers a moment of brilliance in extra time after a frustrating game for spectators to send Argentina on 1-0.

Round of 16 - Germany vs. Costa Rica: MIGHTY CONCACAF'S LONE REPRESENTATIVE IN THE KNOCK OUT ROUNDS MUST BE TRIUMPHANT. ONLY, THEY AREN'T, BECAUSE THEY ARE PLAYING THE GERMANS. COSTA RICA MAKES THEM SWEAT IT OUT, WITH THE GAME LEVEL AT 1-1 AFTER REGULATION, BUT GERMANY HAS TOO MUCH FIRE POWER AND SCORES TWO IN THE EXTRA SESSION.

Round of 16 - Poland vs. England: The system-riggers vs. the Benny Hills results in an evenly contested match which remains knotted through 120 minutes. English fans, having seen this play before, despair. And then, one, two, three, four, five straight cool, composed finishes! With one Polish shot crashing back off the bar, the demons are exorcised! It's not same old England! They are on to the quarterfinals!

Quarterfinal - Uruguay vs. Iceland: Every rational instinct says that Iceland will be long-dead by the quarterfinals. That's why I'm backing them to keep their run going right on to the last four. Once again it's a counter which finds paydirt, and over an interminably long final 20 minutes they hold on desperately to their 1-0 lead until the final whistle.

Quarterfinal - Brazil vs. Senegal: The tournament's other remaining underdog is less fortunate. Brazil are too much for their African opponents, and for the second straight knockout round, the Selecao barely break a sweat as they hang a 4-0 drubbing on their opponents.

Quarterfinal - Spain vs. Argentina: Finally a chance to right the horrible injustice of Spain rudely making a dumb as hell decision after I had said nice things about them. Selfish. Argentina are flawed, but have a manager who was actually preparing to manage a World Cup, which, along with the GOAT, is enough to see them through to the semis 2-0.

Quarterfinal - Germany vs. England: The curse really has been broken, and with their penalty jinx behind them the English side move on to their Deutschland Despair by taking a 2-0 lead inside of 30 minutes. This really is a new day for British footba- oh, wait, nevermind, the Germans claw one back before the break and level in the second half. Nobody scores in extra time, and sure as the sun rises in the morning, the Germans knock the Three Lions out on penalties.

Semifinal - Iceland vs. Brazil: Surely, this is where Iceland's great story has to end, right? Right. Brazil complete their unimpeded trot to the final with another calm, effortless brush aside, 3-0.

Semifinal - Argentina vs. Germany: The Germans take the lead early in the second half, but Messi answers almost immediately with a solo goal that leaves everyone's jaws on the floor. Unfortunately for the little magician, the Germans are still the much stronger overall team, and tack on two more before the final whistle. Argentinian papers spend the next month savaging Messi for not single-handedly winning the Cup.

Third Place Match - Iceland vs. Argentina: Nobody gives a shit.

World Cup Final - Brazil vs. Germany: Is it a bold or exciting pick to say the two best sides, drawn into groups which will place them on opposite halves of the bracket provided they both win their groups, will meet in the final? No. Is it accurate? Probably. Brazil will have been looking forward to this match for four years, ready to get revenge for the 7-1 drubbing Germany handed them on their home soil. They never take a lead. Twice Brazil answers German goals with responses of their own, and the match heads to extra time at 2-2, but the Brazilian's dreams are again dashed as a Mesut Özil pass finds Thomas Müller in the box, and Müller makes no mistake. Germany take the game, and the World Cup, 3-2.

So, there you have it. That is, as a matter of categorical fact, exactly how every single match of the World Cup will go. Enjoy having all that free time you would have otherwise wasted seeing who won.

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