World Cupdate: The Death of Narrative

With the United States failing to qualify heroically taking a stand against the inappropriate nature of holding a World Cup in Russia, ratings have failed to hit the marks Fox was expected when they paid all of the money for broadcasting rights. With the group stage over, and setting the table for the biggest of all possible matches -- Messi vs. Ronaldo at a major international tournament -- you could practically hear Fox execs' mouths watering at the days of content they could mine. All that stood in the way was for Argentina and Portugal to see off France and Uruguay, respectively.

About that...

World Cupdate: Clownfraud Özil can't even finish his own created chances

For the fourth time in the last five World Cups, the reigning champions are out of the competition in group play, as Germany's 2-0 loss to South Korea saw them tumble to dead last in the group. With such a historic collapse for the Germans, who are accustomed to strolling into the late rounds of major competitions without much effort, the obvious question on everyone's lips is "Who is to blame for this?"

Fortunately, there is an equally obvious culprit. One man upon whom it is easy and just to dump all of Germany's problems -- Mesut Özil.

World Cupdate: We Are Living in the Darkest Timeline

On the final match day of Group D there was, for all intents and purposes, one thing to play for. The odds of Nigeria making up a five-goal difference on Croatia were borderline non-existent which meant all eyes were on the second place in the knockout rounds, with all of Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina alive. Of the three, there were two clearly superior outcomes. Teams from the smaller confederations are always loved by non-partisans, and Nigeria further won over hearts with their truly spectacular kits and a great performance in downing Iceland 2-0. The Europeans, for their part, are the smallest side to ever qualify for the World Cup, have that Viking clap which is cool, and are still riding a wave of good will from their quarterfinal run at Euro 2016. Either side moving on to knockouts would provide a side neutrals could rally around. Argentina moving on would mean another world power escaping from their own poor play despite themselves, and prolongs the Sisyphean hell that is Lionel Messi’s international career, repeatedly dragging his teammates to the brink of success only to be undone by their inability to perform anywhere as well as they do for their clubs.

Was there ever any doubt how this was going to go?

World Cupdate: The Assassination of Carlos Queiroz by the Coward Enrique Cáceres

Oh, my, was the #narrative shaping up to be ever so delicious. After the (seemingly only, for US coverage) story of the first 11 days of the tournament was Ronaldo clearly dominating Messi, despite the two being in different groups -- look how brave Ronaldo calmly dispatches his penalty and free kick while Messi has never seen a football before, the scrub -- there was the potential for some true high comedy in the final group games. For all his superior awesomeness Ronaldo's Portugal could still go out with a loss to Iran, while the very abject Argentina side still hold a lifeline in Group D, meaning there was still hope that after all the talk, Portugal and Ronaldo would crash out only to see a Messi hat trick save Argentina's bacon the next day.

World Cupdate: Checking in On, and Revising, Group Finish Predictions

The World Cup is half over, in terms of matches played, which is very sad, but even sadder it turns out that I was not 100% accurate in my predictions. With the final round of group play ready to kick off, most groups still have lots on the line, so it's a good time to assess how things are shaping up (turns out, pretty cool!) and take another look into the crystal ball of this-time-I-really-mean-100%-correct prognostication.

Group A
What I Got Right: Not to brag, but most of it. Saudi Arabia are in last with a terrible GD as predicted, and Uruguay and Russia are guaranteed to be moving on to the knock outs, with today's match deciding little more than placement.
What I Got Wrong: Egypt giving it more of a fight, as I had them on a point here and still alive going into the final games.
What's Left to Happen: Uruguay and Russia will duke it out to top the group. Russia have it with a win or a draw, and Uruguay have looked very mediocre with two 1-0 wins to Russia's resounding 8-1 aggregate score line, but I'm going to back Uruguay to get a third 1-0 and win Group A.

Group B
What I Got Right: Spain topping the group, Iran on 3 points through two games and Morocco looking very much like a team deserving of a spot in the knockout rounds.
What I Got Wrong: Morocco not actually getting anything for looking good. They are at roughly 6 points less than the 6 I predicted through two. Portugal have also been a bit less abject than predicted.
What's Left to Happen: Everything! Iran could still pull off a shock by upsetting Portugal and stealing a spot in the Knockouts, even topping the group should Spain not beat Morocco. Football is cruel, though, so the Iberians will probably both get the job done and move on, with Spain the more comprehensive winners to go top.

A Possibly Accurate, Not Fact-Checked Guide to the World Cup: Knockout Rounds

Every prediction contained in this preview is care of yours truly, somebody with an obsessive OCD-approach to World Cup qualifying who only watched non-US matches as five-minute highlights on double speed, muted, while listening to podcasts. They're probably still pretty good though, because I'm super smart and stuff.

With the Groups out of the way (Previews here: A; B; C; D; E; F; G; H) it's time to move on to the real fun, the knockout rounds, where the true misery artists can step up and show off their craft.

A reminder of the bracket, by way of my bang on group predictions (Click to enlarge):

Round of 16 - Uruguay vs. Morocco: Beneficiaries of some Group B bed-shitting, Uruguay get a relatively easy ask in the Round of 16, and dominate the first half, but lead by only 1-0 at the break because Cavani is gonna Cavani. Ultimately the talent edge is just too great, however, and Uruguay advance as comprehensive winners, 3-0.

Round of 16 - France vs. Iceland: France score early on to put the hopes of all Cinderella watchers to the sword, but Iceland have been here before, facing a similar hurdle in the Round of 16 at Euro 2016. Once again, miracles do come true as a free kick goal draws them level while a lightning counterattack puts the smallest nation ever to qualify into the quarterfinals.

Round of 16 - Brazil vs. Sweden: In a battle to be the one true Yellow-and-Blue side, there is little to no comparison on the pitch. The Swedes keep it competitive for a half hour, and create a few chances of their own, but only manage a conciliatory strike as Brazil takes it 3-1.

Round of 16 - Belgium vs. Senegal: Talks of this being the last chance for Belgium's "golden generation" seem a bit silly, given there's another Euro in two years and their core is far from ancient. They better hope I'm right, because much like against Wales two years ago, Belgium choke super hard in a winnable match and crash out as 2-1 losers.

Round of 16 - Spain vs. Russia: The recent brilliant decision to fire their coach just two days before their first match was a bold move by Spain, and one I really wish had happened before I had already predicted they would top their group with ease. It would be easy to retcon this by having Russia win here, but honestly, even a totally-in-disarray Spain still winning Group B and this match seems more likely than Russia's bum-ass team making the quarterfinals. Spain wins, call it 2-0.

Round of 16 - Argentina vs. Denmark: Two teams who are heavily reliant on their stars to save their asses when nothing else is going right. One of those stars is the excellent Christian Eriksen. The other is Lionel Fucking Messi. Messi delivers a moment of brilliance in extra time after a frustrating game for spectators to send Argentina on 1-0.

Round of 16 - Germany vs. Costa Rica: MIGHTY CONCACAF'S LONE REPRESENTATIVE IN THE KNOCK OUT ROUNDS MUST BE TRIUMPHANT. ONLY, THEY AREN'T, BECAUSE THEY ARE PLAYING THE GERMANS. COSTA RICA MAKES THEM SWEAT IT OUT, WITH THE GAME LEVEL AT 1-1 AFTER REGULATION, BUT GERMANY HAS TOO MUCH FIRE POWER AND SCORES TWO IN THE EXTRA SESSION.

Round of 16 - Poland vs. England: The system-riggers vs. the Benny Hills results in an evenly contested match which remains knotted through 120 minutes. English fans, having seen this play before, despair. And then, one, two, three, four, five straight cool, composed finishes! With one Polish shot crashing back off the bar, the demons are exorcised! It's not same old England! They are on to the quarterfinals!

Quarterfinal - Uruguay vs. Iceland: Every rational instinct says that Iceland will be long-dead by the quarterfinals. That's why I'm backing them to keep their run going right on to the last four. Once again it's a counter which finds paydirt, and over an interminably long final 20 minutes they hold on desperately to their 1-0 lead until the final whistle.

Quarterfinal - Brazil vs. Senegal: The tournament's other remaining underdog is less fortunate. Brazil are too much for their African opponents, and for the second straight knockout round, the Selecao barely break a sweat as they hang a 4-0 drubbing on their opponents.

Quarterfinal - Spain vs. Argentina: Finally a chance to right the horrible injustice of Spain rudely making a dumb as hell decision after I had said nice things about them. Selfish. Argentina are flawed, but have a manager who was actually preparing to manage a World Cup, which, along with the GOAT, is enough to see them through to the semis 2-0.

Quarterfinal - Germany vs. England: The curse really has been broken, and with their penalty jinx behind them the English side move on to their Deutschland Despair by taking a 2-0 lead inside of 30 minutes. This really is a new day for British footba- oh, wait, nevermind, the Germans claw one back before the break and level in the second half. Nobody scores in extra time, and sure as the sun rises in the morning, the Germans knock the Three Lions out on penalties.

Semifinal - Iceland vs. Brazil: Surely, this is where Iceland's great story has to end, right? Right. Brazil complete their unimpeded trot to the final with another calm, effortless brush aside, 3-0.

Semifinal - Argentina vs. Germany: The Germans take the lead early in the second half, but Messi answers almost immediately with a solo goal that leaves everyone's jaws on the floor. Unfortunately for the little magician, the Germans are still the much stronger overall team, and tack on two more before the final whistle. Argentinian papers spend the next month savaging Messi for not single-handedly winning the Cup.

Third Place Match - Iceland vs. Argentina: Nobody gives a shit.

World Cup Final - Brazil vs. Germany: Is it a bold or exciting pick to say the two best sides, drawn into groups which will place them on opposite halves of the bracket provided they both win their groups, will meet in the final? No. Is it accurate? Probably. Brazil will have been looking forward to this match for four years, ready to get revenge for the 7-1 drubbing Germany handed them on their home soil. They never take a lead. Twice Brazil answers German goals with responses of their own, and the match heads to extra time at 2-2, but the Brazilian's dreams are again dashed as a Mesut Özil pass finds Thomas Müller in the box, and Müller makes no mistake. Germany take the game, and the World Cup, 3-2.

So, there you have it. That is, as a matter of categorical fact, exactly how every single match of the World Cup will go. Enjoy having all that free time you would have otherwise wasted seeing who won.

A Possibly Accurate, Not Fact-Checked Guide to the World Cup: Group H

Every prediction contained in this preview is care of yours truly, somebody with an obsessive OCD-approach to World Cup qualifying who only watched non-US matches as five-minute highlights on double speed, muted, while listening to podcasts. They're probably still pretty good though, because I'm super smart and stuff.

Where are they from?: Poland (Pot 1?!?!?!); Colombia (Pot 2); Senegal (Pot 3); Japan (Pot 4)

What to watch for?: Easily the most balanced group of the Cup means you should tune in to see a group where any final standings is possible. First off, big ups to Poland who gamed the shit out of the insanely dumb FIFA rankings, which go based on average points awarded in matches over recent years, with more-important competitions earning more points. So, what did Poland do? Abandoned friendlies until after Pots were decided, so every single match they played got European World Cup Qualifying modifiers, with no weak friendlies dragging them down, landing them higher in the rankings than actual good sides France and Spain. Their spot in Pot 1 was completely undeserved, and totally awesome. I am for anyone taking advantage of FIFA under any circumstances.

Seriously, look at the teams they are ahead of there. Outstanding. (Extra LOL to ESPN for assuming Italy would get in.)